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NsF (BBO -- The Baby Boomers' Optimization)
Ingebord 2022
NOTE: Sorry for English. This is a notebook and I do not like to write here something really important. However, some basic principles must be explained to prevent pointless arguments. (I am too old for emotional but useless time spending.)
This is a very short explanation of the (probably) most important feature of the today's world. Sorry, the theme is really deep and broad, but now I do not have time for details. If you do not feel that you agree with the whole concept, please ignore this post.
This is also an extension of my previous post (Про социализм и управление / / 2016-05-31 / Dietrich Dörner, "Die Logik des Mißlingens. Strategisches Denken in komplexen Situationen" / Дитрих Дёрнер, "Логика неудачи") and a missed part of the NsF posts:
itSotWC::2019-07-02_4, itSotWC::2021-11-24_2, itSotWC::2022-06-23_1, itSorWC::2022-07-05_3, itSotWC::2022-07-30_1
Any kind of resources in the real world is limited. On the contrary, demands are potentially unlimited. Thus, you are always forced to set priorities, and the most important problem is the choice between a long-term optimization and a short-term optimization.
The long-term optimization (the capitalism) means an investing of available resources into a production of some future resources.
Of course, the future is unpredictable, and the long-term investing is bound with unavoidable risks.
The short-term optimization (the socialism) means a distribution of available resources for an immediate consumption.
Of course, the short-term investing must ignore all risks in the future. As rule, some critical parameters bound with the resource production are perceived as fundamental constants, and thus most severe future risks are silently ignored by any kind of socialistic distribution.
Note, the short-term optimization means the old Latin formula "Panem et circenses". The resources could be distributed not only as a short-term wealth (bread) but also as something producing a short-term not materialistic happiness (circuses).
As a side note: A sane family prefers the long-term optimization, a sane bureaucratic structure prefers the short-term optimization. You can yourselves think further about causes and consequences.
Now comes the nicest part: The preferences can change over time, and these changes depend on the current predictions of the personal future.
Let's consider the baby boomers' generation. The rough estimation gives the following three time periods with fundamentally different optimization goals.
- 20-40 years: An investment optimization for cheap and good education, economic growth with expansion, and availability of social lifts. This age period had given the baby boomers a broad and sparking future.
- 40-60 years: An investment optimization for economic stability, personal wealth growth, and social lifts' freezing. This period had given the baby boomers a stable carefree life and steadily growing prosperity.
- 60+ years: A distribution optimization for spending on a clean environment, on an advanced medical aid, on cheap labor, on a pleasing to God charity... Simply speaking, the best strategy for baby boomers in the present time is to fold the human progress around themselves. Unfortunately, they are able to implement this strategy because they have blocked the social lifts in the previous phase.
Of course, this is only the basic idea. There are a lot of details that can be added into a theoretical analysis, and that could be found in the real world we know from the past, and we see today.
I stop here because any further explanation demands advanced diagrams and nontrivial (and today mostly lost) knowledge.
NOTE: Sorry for English. This is a notebook and I do not like to write here something really important. However, some basic principles must be explained to prevent pointless arguments. (I am too old for emotional but useless time spending.)
This is a very short explanation of the (probably) most important feature of the today's world. Sorry, the theme is really deep and broad, but now I do not have time for details. If you do not feel that you agree with the whole concept, please ignore this post.
This is also an extension of my previous post (Про социализм и управление / / 2016-05-31 / Dietrich Dörner, "Die Logik des Mißlingens. Strategisches Denken in komplexen Situationen" / Дитрих Дёрнер, "Логика неудачи") and a missed part of the NsF posts:
- Гибель цивилизаций / 14 kB / 2021-07-30
- USA2020 как смена поколений / 29 kB / 2021-08-14
- Весёлые картинки про Великий Американский Конец / 17.7 kB / 2021-08-16
- 1968 в правильных цитатах / 21.6 kB / 2021-08-17
- Возвращение с Луны / 38.8 kB / 2021-08-25
- The crooked ruler league / 80 kB / 2021-09-01
- Nirvana as the motivation force / itSotWC::2022-02-20_1 / 6.5 kB / 2022-02-20
The Baby Boomers' Optimization explained
itSotWC::2019-07-02_4, itSotWC::2021-11-24_2, itSotWC::2022-06-23_1, itSorWC::2022-07-05_3, itSotWC::2022-07-30_1
Any kind of resources in the real world is limited. On the contrary, demands are potentially unlimited. Thus, you are always forced to set priorities, and the most important problem is the choice between a long-term optimization and a short-term optimization.
The long-term optimization (the capitalism) means an investing of available resources into a production of some future resources.
Of course, the future is unpredictable, and the long-term investing is bound with unavoidable risks.
The short-term optimization (the socialism) means a distribution of available resources for an immediate consumption.
Of course, the short-term investing must ignore all risks in the future. As rule, some critical parameters bound with the resource production are perceived as fundamental constants, and thus most severe future risks are silently ignored by any kind of socialistic distribution.
Note, the short-term optimization means the old Latin formula "Panem et circenses". The resources could be distributed not only as a short-term wealth (bread) but also as something producing a short-term not materialistic happiness (circuses).
As a side note: A sane family prefers the long-term optimization, a sane bureaucratic structure prefers the short-term optimization. You can yourselves think further about causes and consequences.
Now comes the nicest part: The preferences can change over time, and these changes depend on the current predictions of the personal future.
Let's consider the baby boomers' generation. The rough estimation gives the following three time periods with fundamentally different optimization goals.
- 20-40 years: An investment optimization for cheap and good education, economic growth with expansion, and availability of social lifts. This age period had given the baby boomers a broad and sparking future.
- 40-60 years: An investment optimization for economic stability, personal wealth growth, and social lifts' freezing. This period had given the baby boomers a stable carefree life and steadily growing prosperity.
- 60+ years: A distribution optimization for spending on a clean environment, on an advanced medical aid, on cheap labor, on a pleasing to God charity... Simply speaking, the best strategy for baby boomers in the present time is to fold the human progress around themselves. Unfortunately, they are able to implement this strategy because they have blocked the social lifts in the previous phase.
Of course, this is only the basic idea. There are a lot of details that can be added into a theoretical analysis, and that could be found in the real world we know from the past, and we see today.
I stop here because any further explanation demands advanced diagrams and nontrivial (and today mostly lost) knowledge.
no subject
no subject
Да, верно. Спасибо за поправку. Это у меня, как обычно, поток сознания. Как запомнилось, так и написалось. :)
Тема бумеров, хищнически разоряющих
лесэкономику, уже стала общей.no subject
Нет высших сил, двери закрыты совместным трудом и совместными усилиями этого поколения.
Молодое поколение, кстати, тоже вовсю разрушает своё будущее. Но это уже совершенно другая тема.
no subject
Прошу извинить за картинку. Не знал об этой просьбе.
Кстати, я так понимаю на картинке в чёрном костюме некий собирательный образ политика, который выполняет желания бумеров. Хоть и не понятно зачем ему нарисовали инопланетные уши.
Я как раз при каждом случае повторяю что нет никаких высших сил, мировых закулисных элит и пр. Всё сами, сами...
no subject
С карикатурами, да и с обычными графиками, проблема в том, что в них слишком много того, о чём люди не задумываются. Логическое восприятие и эмоциональное восприятие сильно отличаются по принципам, но их очень сложно отличать в собственных путях рассуждений.
Картинка врёт, потому что политики -- это те же baby boomers. Проблема не столько в том, что они под кого-то подстраиваются, а в том, что они вполне определённые вещи воспринимают правильными.
Короче, там два в одном. Но люди творческие мыслят эмоциями и у них государство (небожители) отдельно от людей (таких как автор картинки). И, к тому же, для них чиновники и политики выше не только по положению, но и по знаниям, аналитическим способностям и уму.
Обычное магическое мышление, когда предполагается некая мистическая сила, которую можно упросить или заставить действовать в свою пользу. Тем эта модель всем творческим людям и нравится.