NsF (The crooked ruler league)

[vit_r]

Contents

1. Introduction
2. The Global Disaster Ruled by Science
3. The Roadmap of Insane Numbers
4. Magnificent Proofs Based on Ignorance
5. The Rotten Silver Bullets
6. The Hunt on Greedy Doctors
7. The War of Face Masks
8. The Discovery of an Obvious Wonder

Introduction

This text explains the role of statistical models in the current COVID-19 pandemic from the point of view of social engineering. This is a side product, which was created with methods I would explain in the book (that I have many times mentioned in this blog), but I have decided to select for it the examples that match my goals better. The main part of the explanations below are based on my conversations with professional statisticians.

Note: This text contains about 80 kB (13.5 thousand words). Some parts of it could be not fully understood unless you have read other texts in my blog. Some ideas are conclusions from the analysis methods from the book, they were intentionally left unexplained. I had thought to make a small e-book which would describe the current pandemic as a failure of quality control, to add into it many explanations, and to offer it for a small price to look how many people really need such knowledge, but this is too boring.

I think, most people would be not interested in my opinion because it causes a cognitive dissonance with their beliefs, and the information below could be obvious for the readers of my blog. Some old ideas are simply translated into English. (A long post about vaccines will follow in Russian when I find time to collect parts of my conversations with Russian mathematicians and other people who had claimed to be experts in statistics and controlling.) Other things are obvious conclusions from the information which is present in this blog. All remaining explanations are obvious conclusions from social engineering models that could be probably mentioned in the book as self-study tasks.

This text contains only a small personal opinion. However, this is an opinion of an engineer, and even more: This is an opinion of an engineer who knows quality control. Consequently, it may be interesting for somebody who would understand a point of view of a rare being.

This text is written, because it is simpler to write and forget, than permanently remember that I could write it. I would mention the parts, that are consequences form the information in the book. I would not explain them here and I would not discuss it.

You can use this information as you like. You can rewrite it in a better way, translate it in any language, distribute it, deny it, advertise it, or understand it.

I had thought to postpone this post till the end of September, because I would not disturb the clean fall of Germany. However, I am not an arrogant person to think that my ideas could be interesting for people who advertise that they are trying to save Germany in the German election 2021. And even if they understand and accept my ideas, I'm sure, any attempts to explain them to masses could not disturb the destruction.

The source of problems is hidden in the modern education system, and it is impossible to dispose of the rotten roots. This is also a conclusion from social engineering models which would be explained in the book.

I do not think that it is a right thing to persuade Germans with words. This country is beyond help. It is better to let the citizens to make a bad choice and then be afghanistanized as its consequence. (I mean not the Afghanistan's people; I mean the American way.)

The Global Disaster Ruled by Science

"For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow."

Some new scientifically proven theories are a bit imprecise, most new and even some old scientifically proven theories are completely wrong.

You could speak with a scientist about wonders of nature, about depths of mathematical theories, about highs of creative imagination, and you will widen your horizons. However, if you are in a critical situation and a scientist comes, tells that he has a world's best experience in this area, and offers you his help, your only response must be: "Thank you, and shut up."

(Note, I mean a white (Russian) male scientist. Some cultures still allow to use short precise protocols. I would probably explain in the book, why such protocols are essential for survival in dangerous situations.)

Beware of modern science.

First of all, this is now a perverted kind of sport. It is called the Publication Race.

Each and every scientist tries greedily to collect goals called the Scientific Articles. He does not research all possibilities, he does not dig deep into his knowledge, and, of course, he does not think. All modern scientists are caught in a big hamster wheel, and they try to reach the maximal speed in the Preparation Cycle "collect data -- process data -- write an article -- send this article -- repeat".

Some scientists produce more than hundred articles per year. Of course, this is impossible to do alone, this means, the Publication Race is a team sport.

A team is a bunch of people where you will be unable to find a single person who could know, what all these people really have found out. Sometimes, such person exists but is very difficult to reach. Usually, each participant of a team possesses only a fraction of knowledge. Note, an explanation does not mean knowledge, and the fraction of knowledge you can obtain from a scientist you can reach can be not only incomplete but also completely wrong.

The Publication Race has also a small hamster well which is called the Justification Cycle.

Most articles who reach an editorial office will be not published but rejected. This means, a team of scientists tells an editorial office that they have discovered some new knowledge and -- this is important -- are able to prove it, but this editorial office replays these scientists that they are wrong.

A normal person would start a reflection process. This means, you look into a mirror and ask yourself what and why have you done wrong. A reflection allows you to improve your knowledge and to prevent the same errors in the future. It makes you better.

A team of scientist has no time for reflection they are in a Publication Race, and any correction means time. The scientists have an almost ready article, and it is too time consuming to find errors, to correct them, or even to start the data collection anew.

The scientists with a rejected article start a Justification Cycle. This means, they try to polish the representation of their article to make the knowledge -- that may be completely wrong -- more believable. They add some more data, some more data processing, some more citations of other articles, and rewrite some parts. Then they try to send the article in the same editorial office anew.

Sometimes it goes through, but usually the article gets rejected anew.

What does a team of scientists do? They do not start any reflection, they send the same article in another editorial office. And, after it gets rejected, they send it in the third, fourth, fifth editorial office until the article gets accepted.

The Justification Cycle is a process to justify the New Knowledge for Humanity with a publication. This piece of knowledge that have gone through many Justification Cycles is too often only a piece of shit.

The differences between a scientist and an engineer will be described in the book. The models of goals will be also described or mentioned there. They are pretty simple. Here is a conclusion that I also will not explain any further: A scientist is a person who does not accept his own errors, does not correct them and produces rubbish which he also cannot completely comprehend.

Do not argue with a three-year-old child and with a scientist. They would not understand your arguments unless your arguments fully match their beliefs.

Of course, I do not claim that any and every scientist can be described with this sentence. There are a lot of people who have very deep and mostly right knowledge in very complicated areas and who produce excellent ideas that brightens the horizons of the humanity. They are the relics of the ancient science.

We are in a transformation process to the science of the 21st century and the old-style scientists are not completely extinct. The scientist I have described, corresponds to the economical optimization in current conditions. Any attempts to do something different would be stopped and destroyed by modern economic forces. (The reasons, why even the obvious knowledge of the 20th century can be considered now as an ancient science will be described in the book.)

You cannot make anything better by inserting bureaucracy into the process. The intentions are irrelevant. Any kind of bureaucracy always produces unintended consequences. The politics of the 21st century is justified by science, and nothing could be more dangerous than this, because the belief in science switches off the remains of common sense by most politicians.

From the point of view of social engineering -- which I also do not describe here --, it is no wonder why the modern politics can only produce disasters. The most prominent chain of disastrous political decisions today is the attempt to control the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Roadmap of Insane Numbers

"The numbers are rising!"

"We must lower the numbers!"

"The people must a bit perish because of the numbers."

"Do you not believe in numbers?"

Our mass media today tells, mentions and yells about numbers. The politicians make decisions on base of numbers. People argue because of numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic is ruled by numbers, and this means it has a fundamental problem: The numbers are destined to be wrong.

Sometimes they are a bit wrong, sometimes they are completely wrong, sometimes -- if we speak about predictions -- they are insane.

By the way, I do not agree that China is somewhat responsible for the disastrous measures of the European countries at the time of the first COVID-19 wave. The numbers in a socialistic country are for show and cannot reflect any reality. The Chinese simply could not imagine that some idiots would really believe in the numbers reported by China and who could base their strategies on these numbers.

(The socialistic reports do not deliver true information, they have a very specific meaning which must be decoded. The numbers in the reports also play a specific role, which allows them to be completely incorrect from the mathematical point of view. The reasons would be described in the book.)

I use statistical methods for the quality control and in my area the results of an analysis almost always affect the people who produce the raw data, and these people usually know that these results will affect them. They could ignore this fact only in case they are hopelessly dumb. Otherwise, they would try to affect the data, the data reporting and the data analysis in the ways that benefit them. The current pandemic has the same hidden forces.

The criteria for the definition of COVID-19 cases and not COVID-19 cases are not objective. They are depended on subjective opinions.

These criteria also periodically change what can cause a dramatic change in reported numbers. The most obvious cases are listed even on Wikipedia. ( "On 17 April, following the Wuhan government's issuance of a report on accounting for COVID-19 deaths that occurred at home that went previously unreported, as well as the subtraction of deaths that were previously double-counted by different hospitals, the NHC retrospectively revised their cumulative totals dating to 16 April, adding 325 cumulative cases and 1,290 deaths.", "Russia More Than Doubles April Coronavirus Death Toll", The Moscow Times, 13 June 2020, etc.)

There are a lot of more subtle cases which are difficult to recognize unless you are directly involved somewhere in the process. (This information is usually not public.)

The "raw" data concerning COVID-19 cases is affected by all levels of rules, and they are not stable. Even the WHO recommendations were considerably changed several times. Sometimes the local test labors get overloaded, sometimes the insurance companies change rules for compensations, sometimes a specific test facility get closed... Each such change will affect the measurement processes, the amount of measurements, or the ways the measured data will be interpreted. Nobody considers such changes by reporting, comparing and analyzing the numbers.

Sometimes politicians intentionally change the rules for data collection to "fight" the rising or falling numbers. It is possible to change the rules even for the ICU cases.

For instance, Swiss nursing homes have received very interesting (and ethically somewhat questionable) orders about providing and not providing medical help for old or chronically ill patients. (В домах престарелых произошло 60% смертей / 9 kB / 2020-05-25 and Никто не хотел умирать / 6 kB / 2020-11-17. Note: these posts will not be translated.) And these rules were also periodically changed by politicians.

This means, the most important criteria to produce numbers of COVID-19 deaths is subjective and can be consciously or unconsciously manipulated.

Any system which involves people must first and foremost be checked for hidden intentions.

For instance, a pathologist works in a hospital, he decides if a dead patient will be reported as a COVID-19 victim or if the death cause will be placed into some other category. This pathologist has managers who run the hospital and are aware of statistics, he has personal beliefs, and he follows the overall country's statistics because they will affect the lockdowns and other measures which together with his manager will affect his personal life.

These cyclical dependencies cannot be ignored. Let's assume, that this pathologist is not an idiot. Consequently, his decisions will be affected by his expectations of the consequences of the decisions he is going to make.

You cannot ignore such cyclical dependencies.

Even worse, the intentions of this pathologist and his estimations of the risks and benefits are dependent on official criteria which change over time and -- what may be more important -- on the orders from above that are nearly random.

Two different pathologists, even two pathologists in the same hospital may have quite different intentions, what will inevitably produce differences in "raw" data preparations. Consequently, the reported data will show dramatic changes when one of them goes on vacation.

Of course, all variables which may affect the subjective choices by "raw" data preparation are not reported together with the numbers and are not considered in statistics.

The difference of two pathologists in my example describes this problem on the most basic level. A lot of death causes are not obvious, consequently many decisions are partially based on personal opinions. These personal opinions depend on personal preferences. Which may drastically differ. This is a typical case for Russia, and I know such cases from other countries. It is possible to find some complaints of the pathologists on social networks, even in English (probably not all of them are already banned).

Even a decision about making a test is a conscious decision, which is made under consideration of the probably results of this test and their consequences.

There are a lot of possibilities to manipulate PCR-test results, even if the measurements are produced independently. The people in a hospital which is generously paid for COVID-19 cases will act differently in comparison to the people in a hospital which will be closed, if a single COVID-19 case will be found in it.

Such commercial interests may be local, may be regional, may be country specific, and may change immediately after a sudden political decision.

Sorry, I cannot share my samples because this information is not public. There are some articles from Russia about a hospital where the medical staff was prohibited not only to test patients but also to carry face masks. (This was leaked because of only one person who had the bravery to speak with journalists. He was alone despite many severe cases and some deaths. Most doctors and nurses in all affected countries prefer to be silent.)

You cannot hope that you are not analyzing intentionally prepared junk, if the people who have produced your data are dependent on the results of your statistical analysis. If there are clear intents to affect results by manipulating the raw data, your only solution is an independent measurement of the variables in question. You have a right to hope that the people who produce the data will not lie intentionally (and even unintentionally), but you cannot prove this. You cannot even estimate which part of data was manipulated unless you fully control the measurement process.

Modern global pandemic inevitable causes global data fraud. It was started with the manipulated socialistic statistics from China. A lot of scientists intentionally manipulate or select data to quickly produce articles which will generate citations in an overheated field. Many of the "breaking news" are already proven to be completely wrong.

Note, all predictive models -- and the most disastrous political decisions were based on predicted numbers -- are nonlinear. This means, a small fraction of wrong data can produce completely wrong results. For instance, a 1% difference causes pretty small errors a linear model. All processes in this pandemic are nonlinear and cyclically dependent. For instance, the same 1% rise of numbers can cause a lockdown which affects this numbers.

We know that some data would be inevitably compromised, we do not measure it, and we even cannot estimate this part because the additional data that could allow such measurements is not collected. This means, we only affect but not control these processes, and we cannot predict unintended consequences.

And the intentionally wrong data is intentionally wrong processed by scientists ricing in their Publication Cycles. The editorial offices that receive articles with forged numbers are dependent on numbers because they also depend on the political decisions which will be made on base of these results. (Lancetgate, Remdesivir, etc.)

Magnificent Proofs Based on Ignorance

The disasters with all predictive models in the COVID-19 pandemic have clearly demonstrated that it is not enough to believe in numbers. It is necessary to know, what these numbers really mean.

It is not enough to feed a computer with numbers and to produce an article. Any theory can be proven if the scientists who process the numbers know nothing about processes they try to analyze. Right proofs should be based on deep knowledge, not on an arrogant ignorance.

Wrong models produce wrong conclusions. This also means, that the same data may be used -- dependent on the kinds of ignorance or misunderstanding, which scientists implant into their analysis algorithms -- for proofs of quite different theories.

Most models simply assume a consistent mix of randomly and evenly connected people. This is usually not the case. As a rule, the virus propagation networks, and the qualities of the clusters are not considered. Most models are also based on the concept of infinite resources, consequently, they simply are unable to predict the fall of their rising exponents because of an absence of further not infected individuals or because of an absence of further patients with a weak immune system.

(The meaning of symbols on these diagrams is obvious, otherwise it can be found in Funny Images / / 2020-03-27)

Some critical dependencies may be simply sorted out of the equation because of ignorance or because of political reasons.

For instance, a conclusion "The new version X is more contagious" could be corrected into "The schools have again opened their doors for the children".

A headline "The new wave brings more deaths" may mean "The management of Y Inc. has decided to save money and has recruited many cheap part-time workers who neglect the sanitary standards and take shifts in many nursing homes that belong to this chain".

Of course, you could not get such information, but the mass media sometimes report about the criminal investigations that were caused by statistical anomalies (which were ignored by science but were noticed by the relatives of "fatal cases").

Even a recommendation to disinfect hands could produce quite different effects because of drastic differences of ignored variables.

The ignorance of unknown variables is the cause why all arguments about statistics are endless and meaningless when the other variables are not discussed.

The problems get worse in cases where medical interventions are involved. You can close all schools from a single specific day, but a vaccination process is inevitable prolonged through time, uneven on workdays and the weekend, and the effects of a vaccination of a single person are not immediately but cause complex dynamic changes. (Две картинки в стиле ASCII-art / 5 kB / 2021-08-05 The text is written in Russian, which is today the de facto free speech language. Some of my posts are also intentionally protected from the automatic translation.)

I would not explain that the people are biologically different, but most models ignore what the doctors known from the Spring 2020. The _A_bnormal reaction on the virus S_A_RS-CoV-2 is highly dependent on the risk groups. This means, the correct statistical report would not tell the public something like: "200 patients 85+, 30 patients 65-84 and 10 patients 20-65", but it would transfer the same information which doctors in a hospital use for their internal purposes: "80 diabetes mellitus cases, 30 hypertonic cases, 128 multimorbid patients with immunodeficiency and 2 patients without chronic diseases".

Usually, the data which is necessary for a correct understanding does not leave the hospitals. The critical COVID-19 related information is simply not gathered by authorities. The absence of this information inevitably produces wrong conclusions based of ignorance of critically important factors and on misunderstanding of publicly available numbers.

Of course, the scientists see how their prediction fail and they feel that their models lack something. But they have the modern science mindsets and cannot realize that their models lack understanding, they believe that their algorithms can create knowledge, if they feed them with more data.

I do not mean here more relevant data, you need a professional understanding of the finest details to recognize hidden variables; I mean the irrelevant data that could allow the scientists produce their articles.

The scientists tell the politicians that they need more data, and the politicians start the Disclosure Cycle. The they tell you that the science needs your sensible personal data to save you. Sometimes they ask you to give them your data voluntarily, sometimes they simply give the scientists the data that already was stored by authorities in a secure way protected from any misuse. The scientists expand their models with new irrelevant variables and feed the computers with more data. The predictions turn more precise and more wrong. The scientists claim that they have not enough data and repeat the Disclosure Cycle.

Any irrelevant data cannot make models right, it only inserts additional hidden dependencies what creates additional errors in predictions.

For instance, the patients with darker skin color have lower levels of vitamin D3, which affects the immune reaction by COVID-19. The vaccination mysteries in Israel may be solved if we consider that the propaganda against the skin cancer has caused overprotection from the sun, which has caused statistically significant low vitamin D3 level in the population.

We cannot prove or disprove these reasonable theories because the relevant data is not collected.

The Rotten Silver Bullets

When the politicians try to solve a problem, they do not make deep analyses, they do not predict consequences, they do not even try to understand the problem they are trying to solve, the only one thing that is really important for the politicians is how impressive is the presentation of their solution.

This process is called the Branding and the solution is called the Silver Bullet.

When a problem arises and the politicians cannot ignore it anymore, they search for a Silver Bullet, start a Branding and announce, that they have found an ultimate solution for this problem.

After this strategy produces disastrous results, the politicians immediately start a Re-Branding, this means they declare that their errors are not important because the Silver Bullet will solve the same problem in another way. (A Re-Branding causes a cognitive dissonance of a fraction of people with prolonged memory, but this effect would be considered further on a funnier example.)

After several cycles of Re-Branding the politicians find another Silver Bullet and start the Branding for it.

This cycle never ends because there are no politicians who could accept their own errors.

The politicians are only humans, they err. Most of them are pretty dumb humans because they do not have any real-life experience, they have only done politics. This means, they cannot understand the consequences of their decisions. When their strategies fail, they deny any responsibility. Sometimes this is because these people are evil and dishonest. However, in most cases they simply do not understand that the disastrous consequences were caused by their actions.

You cannot blame a three-year-old child for painting on a wall, it simply does not understand. You must teach it. A typical politician has the same naive destructive honesty as a three-year-old child, but it is useless to try to explain to a politician the casual dependencies. The behavior of adults is hardwired, and you have only one option: You must replace them.

This means, the politicians advertise their Silver Bullets not cynically knowing the true, they sincerely believe in them. Another important feature is the short memory of all politicians. They cannot remember in what they had believed some time ago.

This is also not an evil behavior but an unconscious optimization. (This conclusions from the basic principles will not be explained here, maybe some social engineering models will be presented in the book, however, they are banal.)

The Silver Bullet that is branded at the time I write this text is called the Vaccine.

Of course, I am not dumb to share in public my knowledge about COVID-19 vaccines. Wait, you will know. Maybe. The following explanations are pretty abstract and describe the vaccines as a representation of Silver Bullets from the social engineering's perspective.

At the current moment this Silver Bullet was processed through several phases of Re-Branding. The first was the Vaccine Myth. It announced to the public that a vaccine is a free lunch. It gives you the full protection and it causes you no harm.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. (Really. You can believe me. The book will contain an analysis of inevitable hidden payments.)

The filtration of panic voices was successful during some time, but it had failed because of the quantity of such cases. It is no problem, if some old patients die because of unknown reasons in a closed nursing house; if some young and healthy individuals suddenly get ill and show unusual symptoms, the ignorance of causalities is a bit more complicated.

The producers of vaccines have notified doctors about some very rare cases. This is a simple formality that only adds some unnoticeable lines in the confirmation form, but this is an official destruction of the Vaccine Myth.

As a side note, I can confirm that the producers of vaccines are not responsible. Even when their managers are optimistic, these companies have very good lawyers. Each official description and each official promise I know contain the right amount of clauses with the meanings "maybe", "probably" and "we hope". Of course, it was anti-scientific to point on them, until they were officially activated for political discussions.

The next Brand was the Vaccine Promise. If you get vaccinated, you receive an absolute protection, and you will not be ill, and you will not die. You could probably feel a bit ill and very improbably feel a bit dead, but this very-very small risk allows you to avoid more severe consequences and lets you survive.

By the way, this is true. There were a lot of patients with chronic illnesses, who have high risk of severe consequences by a COVID-19 infection. They had taken risks that were smaller and get vaccinated.

There were much more people who are pretty healthy, but who were afraid of a Deadly Virus. They had taken risks and were released from their internal terror.

It is a sane strategy when people get voluntary vaccinated on base of doctors' recommendations or on base of their own fears. The politic is always insane. The politicians could not accept if their Silver Bullets turn into ordinary reasonable strategies. Their solutions must be only ultimate, and they must be obligatory for all citizens under control.

(Note, this is not an evil will of the politicians -- they are too dumb for complex strategies -- this is an unconscious feature of individuals who have climbed the political ladder relatively high. The politicians sincerely believe that there are only people who willingly follow their genial politics and full idiots who do not understand their own benefits. The social engineering models, that explain, why a limitation of an introduced politic is accepted by politicians as a failure, is obvious and could be built on base of basic principles that will be described in the book. This would be also obvious on base of common sense as long as you reduce your expectations and stop to overestimate the politicians' brain power.)

The politicians have perceived people who would not be vaccinated as enemies of their political power. They had tried many ways of branding and had applied a lot of science.

Too many people were not affected by the political advertising.

If you are a young healthy woman, you could not (immediately) turn into an very old man with many chronic illnesses that are the high risk factors by a COVID-19 infection. This means, a personal analysis of risks and benefits could not match with the will of the politicians. There are also a lot of people who are simply afraid of vaccinations. There are also a lot of people who are ignorant to any risks.

Simply speaking, the Vaccine Promise has also failed as an ultimate solution for the politicians who had branded it. (I know about capitalistic reasons, about the evil corruption and about many other things. If you like the idea that the politicians are guided by money, I will not argue with you. The book will explain why these forces are much smaller than the power of dumbness.)

The next Brand was the Vaccine Indulgence.

You get nailed and you will not get infected, consequently, you will not infect other people, these people will not suffer, these people will not die. You take some very-very small risks, but you will save many human lives.

These reasons are very good. People are the social beings, and it is important to consider not only your personal benefits but the needs of the society. It is necessary for every person to be aware of the needs of others and be aware of the common good.

The Vaccine Indulgence is excellent. Unfortunately, it is based on the ignorance of reality.

The vaccination is a great discovery of the humanity. It has saved countless lives. It has made many dangerous diseases extinct. It has a long history of excellent achievements.

Unfortunately, all this glory is related to relatively simple viruses. The coronaviruses have a shell that can carry longer genetic information and they mutate more rapidly. This means, the immunity after an infection cannot stop coronaviruses because the new mutations will emerge and some of them will avoid the immune response to the older version of the same virus. The vaccines can participate in this race. It is not probably that they could win. The coronaviruses were almost always quicker to change.

The virus SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus. Countless experts have told the politicians that the Vaccine Indulgence would not work. They were ignored. When they were too persistent, they were silenced as the enemies of science. (Note, science of the 21st century is always proving something that completely matches the needs of the current politics.)

The politicians were wrong. The numbers have already shown that the enemies of science were right. This was known from the beginning, because the cases of re-infection with COVID-19 were reported pretty early. The natural immunity after an illness can usually stop the broader spectrum of virus mutations. The current vaccines are more selective, and this selection is directed on the first version of SARS-CoV-2, which was long ago replaced with newer versions.

The Brand which emerges today is the Vaccine Faith.

You are going to be vaccinated because you must be vaccinated. Good citizens must be vaccinated. A vaccination means responsibility. A vaccination means salvation. You must be nailed, and you must have faith in the vaccines.

Shut up and be vaccinated.

Note, you may do not like the Vaccine Faith, but it nothing wrong with it. There is a hidden trick in each Branding, and it is called the Justification to Goals. Of course, a failure means, that the previous Justification was wrong. But this does not mean, that the Silver Bullet must be replaced. The politicians use a more effective method. The Justification to Goals means that the Goals must be changed to let the solution to be directed properly. The Vaccine Myth has the simplest Goal: The politicians will save your health and your life. The Vaccine Promise has almost the same Goal which is a bit compromised: The politicians cannot remove all risks, but they offer you the safest way to save your health and your life.

The Vaccine Indulgence has another Goal. Your life is no more important, because the politician must save as many people as possible.

Try to guess, which Goal justifies the Vaccine Faith? This is a bit tricky, but this Goal can be found on base of science. I mean, you can check which scientific articles prove now the political strategies.

(I have discussed an interesting article with statisticians, but I have decided not to share the link here. Unless you have a comparable experience in several fields, or unless you have read the book that I have not written jet, it is too difficult to solve this task without long explanations. I am too lazy now to write them.)

The search for goals starts with a reverse justification. People get vaccinated. Some of them build immunity. Some of them get ill. Some of them die. What it is good for?

Note, you cannot select a single consequence, you cannot select only the consequences you like, the Goal must justify all possible consequences, because the politicians must be able to explain that each and every consequence is a way in the same direction.

A COVID-19 infection has two official consequences: an infected individual either dies of develops a natural immunity. Note, the current official science ignores two facts.

First, the natural immunity may not be developed, and an individual may remain infected. The known cases are rare, but their existence is more important than the frequency, because this is a fundamental problem.

A weak immune system of such patients can suppress the virus to prevent a death, but it cannot remove the virus from the body completely. Such patients generate new SARS-CoV-2 mutations and could be considered as the permanent carriers.

The virus SARS-CoV-2 can mutate in this direction and produce a version that permanently lives in many people. This means, it is possible that the outcome of the pandemic will be the existence of permanent stealth carriers.

This possibility was known from the beginning, but it is not mentioned now in mass media, and the attempts to discuss it get blamed and blocked as anti-scientific. We can conclude that this outcome contradicts the Justification Goal of the Vaccine Faith.

Second, the natural immunity may rapidly fail over short time period.

This possibility is discussed in mass media. It is permitted by science, and the arguments about importance of a vaccination after infection are broadly accepted. The politicians permit the people with a previous confirmed infection to have some time the same rights as the people who got vaccinated. A previous PCR-confirmed infection does not prevent the necessity to be vaccinated but could permit the smaller number of injections.

We can conclude that the natural immunity is partially aligned with the Justification Goal of the Vaccine Faith.

Note, the results of injections of vaccines are not measured. The rule is not scientific but administrative.

The deaths after vaccination are rare and probably random. (I mean here the deaths that were confirmed by authorities. I do not mean the information that is now considered as anti-scientific because it does not match with the current Brand.)

These deaths are the key for finding the Goal which is used for the current Justification.

A death is ultimate. You cannot cure it. You cannot redo it. You cannot reverse it. And it is certain.

It is important to mention, that any medical intervention, also any decision to reject a medical intervention is bound with some risk of death. When the risk of death is too small to be considered, each medical intervention must be evaluated against an illness that may be caused by this intervention. (The rare patients with specific illnesses caused by the current vaccination are officially confirmed, and I mean here only these cases.)

This means, all medical interventions and all medical recommendations must be estimated against risks and benefits. Any medication and any vaccine must change something in the patient's body to be different from placebo. This change can cause negative effects. Note, an overdose of almost all substances is not healthy. An illness can be caused even by taking too much water.

A risk of death is acceptable, if a medical intervention in question removes another risk of death or a risk of a severe illness. You won't chop off an arm, if it aches. You will try to take some pills. If these pills cause you a strong stomach pain, you could accept an ache in your arm as a better solution.

Note, this does not say anything about the benefits of others, you cannot chop off somebody's arm, only while its ugly look disturbs your digestion.

The deaths and severe illnesses after a vaccination and after the second injection of the same vaccine are confirmed and their number would be enough to stop any other medical intervention even if it could prevent deaths, because a dangerous medical intervention must be compared against the less risky methods. A lot of very good medications were stopped by authorities because of this reason.

Let's find out what these deaths are for.

The deaths among the individuals form risk groups are not important. It is possible to claim, that an estimation of risks is based on the outdated statistics and these people would survive today a COVID-19 infection, because the new treatment protocols are much better. This cannot be proven, and these deaths can be ignored.

The deaths and severe illnesses among the individuals who almost certainly would not suffer from an COVID-19 infection and its consequences are good for this analysis. The risk for these people was known before the first injection. Note, the politicians do not err and do not make errors, they always regoalize their actions. This means, these deaths cannot be pardoned with a lack of knowledge. They must be justified as scarifies to reach a more important Goal.

The risk to be infected cannot be compared with the result because the infections after vaccinations are officially confirmed. This means, a prevention of an infection with COVID-19 cannot pardon these deaths.

The prevented risks to get a severe illness or to die as a consequence of a COVID-19 infection is too low for these people to be taken into account. It must be ignored.

The prevention of a spread of COVID-19 also does not pass, because the vaccinated people get infected and can be considered as stealth spreaders. This means, even if all people in a country get vaccinated, this does not stop COVID-19 from spreading.

Of course, I know the answer from the beginning because I can estimate diagrams from the book even not driving them. The solution is very simply. Let's confirm it by considering another case when the deaths were justified. I mean the Way of Sweden.

There is an important variable that is not confirmed by the politically recognized science. This is the clean immunity against COVID-19. (Note, I use not the official names but the names that denote some clear meaning.)

A lot of people had a massive contact with many ill patients and did not get ill. It is reasonable to conclude, that some of them did not get infected. This is a clean immunity without a natural immunity which is developed after an illness and without an artificial immunity after a vaccination. This is the point zero for all comparisons, but it is not known. This variable is hidden inside all statistics, but it is always ignored in analyses and conclusions.

The ruler of Sweden had declared that this variable equals null, and a big fraction of citizens must be infected to build a natural herd immunity.

The word "herd" is very important and denotes not only the brainpower of the population who have allowed these politicians to rule them. This word means that the life of a single person can be neglected.

A COVID-19 infection may have two official consequences: either a patient builds a natural immunity, or this patient dies.

The old patients usually were sorted out during the developing of a herd immunity but the demographic is not important by COVID-19. This is a disease of an abnormal response of a weak immune system. Consequently, COVID-19 is very selective to the health state of a specific person. You cannot make reasonable conclusion about it on base of demographic data only. (This also means that a decision about vaccination must be made by a doctor and not by a bureaucrat. Note, this is my personal opinion that may differ from the official politics. I simply mention it here, because it is still permitted at the moment I write this text to mention own opinions in social media.)

Unfortunately, a weak immune system additionally means a weak ability to build a long-term immunity against COVID-19 as after a previous infection also after a full vaccination. All statistics I know show that the levels of antibodies rapidly fail in the groups that must be protected the most.

The percentage of persons with a weak immune system -- what usually means chronic illnesses -- is small in younger age groups. A chronic illness usually means frequent doctor visits or frequent hospitalizations. These are now the virus distribution centers. This means, any person in a risk group remains to be in danger.

The Russian health care system is insane, and doctors visit their patients at home. The unnecessary hospitalizations are also very frequent. These are the most prominent ways of infections of the patients form risk groups. What is responsible for big numbers of COVID-19 deaths in this country.

It is officially scientifically proven that a natural immunity after COVID-19 infections can help the politicians to build a "broader-spectrum" herd immunity among survivors. If you let the weak people die, the nation gets stronger.

Sweden's strategy has failed because the price to pay is too high, and the immunity is high only temporary. Unfortunately, it is not enough to consider deaths. The problem with the infection is the (scientifically proven) existence of survivors with a severe long COVID-19, and the problem with vaccines are unknown long-term side effects that we will learn only in the future. The known side effects are also problematic.

A COVID-19 infection or any vaccination do not completely prevent next infections even with the same SARS-CoV-2 version. The virus may also go to the domestic animals and return to humans. This virus will remain with us in the future and new mutations could cause new outbreaks.

A new wave can rise anytime because of cold weather or because of school holidays. The reserves to respond to such rises are nearly absent.

The danger of overflowed hospitals is only increasing. Employees are active leaving intensive care stations because of insane state politics and because of management's economy measures. The number of ICU beds is falling in most countries.

This means, a dozen of severe COVID-19 patients -- and such numbers are common for big nursing homes infected with COVID-19 -- can overflow all hospitals in a region. Check, how many free ICU beds are available in the hospitals near you. Unless you live in a very big city, you will wonder how small is this number.

Additionally, experts (which are anti-scientific at this moment) say that the current brainless antivirus measures could guide the virus evolution in the direction of the Marek virus or the Dengue virus.

All vaccines also have a long list of chronic diseases that prevent a vaccination because of high probability of side effects. This variable is usually hidden in the statistics of "not vaccinated" because it may reduce the importance of reported advantages of a vaccination. It is very probably that many scientific articles which compare the vaccinated against the unvaccinated extract their statistics from the hidden immunocompromised individuals, where one group could not build a strong natural immunity because of their illnesses and the second group is not permitted to build a strong natural immunity because of their illnesses.

Let's return to the people who have died because a vaccination. It is clear, their deaths cannot be justified with any real-life reason. What remains?

The Justification Goal of the Vaccine Faith is quite clear. The vaccination is necessary to affect short term numbers. A politician can proudly announce: "Be delighted! The sacrifices were unavoidable. Your children had to die to reduce R0!"

If you think that nobody could accept such Justifications, you do not understand the psychology of the people who are affected by the Vaccine Faith. Try to remember, which conditions frequently repeated in our culture could force you to vaccinate other people or to kill them if they are unvaccinated.

Yes, their internal fear yells: "Zombies are coming!" And if you hope, nobody could be dumb enough to react with such fears on COVID-19, you must remember that these people have believed in modern science.

Note, I do not claim that the R0 is the main number, I simply hear it too often. As an engineer I estimate all numbers which are not compared to the absent now zero point as meaningless claims.

The very popular number of RT-PCR confirmed cases is also not very plausible because of clear personal intentions to manipulate the outcome of a test in many cases. We also do not know, what part of the registered individuals with an RT-PCR confirmation were infected by other influenza viruses (and were unable to create a natural immunity against COVID-19 because they did not have this disease).

All statistics also ignore the human behavior. It is reasonable to conclude, that the people after a severe COVID-19 illness are more cautious even when they get vaccinated. It is reasonable to conclude, that the vaccinated people had changed their behavior after they had received the information that a vaccination cannot prevent an illness.

It is impossible today to answer (from the engineering point of view) almost all important questions because the medical data that could allow to make such conclusions and predictions is unknown. It is not hidden; it simply does not exist.

Note, this was my personal opinion. Forget it and get vaccinated. (Of course, this remark is valid only until the Vaccine Faith remains the main Brand.)

Double-Blind Guides in the Dark Mist

There is a fine difference between believing in numbers and using them.

Let's consider this on the example of the Great German Flood 2021.

The ancient scientists that are nearly extinct in Germany could use numbers to predict these floods and to prepare for it.

I would add here two cents about ancient physics. There is an old saying. If somebody tells a mathematician that the Earth is flat, the mathematician says: "You are an idiot." If somebody tells a physicist that the Earth is flat, the physicist asks: "What reasons do you have to make this conclusion?"

An ancient scientist would not demand to believe him, he either will prove you his words, or he will ignore you completely. It may be an unusual though for the 21st century but there are problems that are too complex to be explained on base of links to an encyclopedia even if this bunch of short articles is placed on a prominent website.

The engineering -- I mean not the virtual kinds of engineering in information technologies but the real-world engineering -- is also nearly extinct in Germany. The positions that are open after old engineers retry remain vacant. There are no people who match the minimal criteria. (By the way, the same problem is awaited with doctors and other brain-intensive professions. This problem cannot be solved with money, the modern education system produces people who are afraid of thinking.)

The real-world engineers could use numbers to build protection systems against floods, to detect the excess of water in 2021, to activate the notification systems in the dangerous areas, to organize a proper evacuation to save lives and goods, and to guide the excess of water in the way to minimize damages and dangers.

The true old-style engineers were absent, even the notification system did not work at the time of danger.

The modern German science of the 21st century uses numbers to prove that the Germans have paid for their sins and were punished for driving cars that are not electric, for sipping from the straws that are not CO₂-neutral, and for eating meat that is made not of worms.

Note, the science is not almighty. The weather models that are adjusted for proving climate sins are simply unable to predict extreme weather conditions with the precision of the ancient science.

The same problem exists for the COVID-19 numbers. You simply cannot predict the load of intensive care stations, if your predictive model is designed to blame people for not being vaccinated; and you cannot estimate risks for a particular patient, if your estimation is based on the data which was collected to blame people for not carrying face masks.

It is also important to mention, that the COVID-19 scientists mistake a complexity with an impossibility. It is impossible to make measurements with better precision than the precision of the available measurement methods. This impossibility is fundamental and cannot be solved with money, quantity or any mathematical tricks.

Most measured numbers are too imprecise to make any reasonable conclusions. You only need to prove that some variable will grow, if you blame someone for something. You need a precise measurement system and a permanently control of measurements' quality over time if you try to predict something and to hold the system under control.

(The modern scientists usually simply ignore precision. This is the fundamental difference between the modern science and the ancient science. It will not be explained here.)

Any estimation is also meaningless if the estimated value is comparable with the variation of the variable in question, and the distribution of this variation cannot be determined because of imprecision or because of lack of data. The scientists who create numbers for politicians do not know this and they do not know the distribution of parameters among the population. They either ignore dependencies and think that not measured parameters are random, or they simply do not take some variables into account.

Almost all numbers we know from COVID-19 science are meaningless, the remaining numbers are misleading. It is impossible to make any reasonable conclusions on base of data which is mixed with an unknown amount of junk. It is impossible to make any reasonable conclusion on base of misunderstandings of the processes that were measured.

Note, medical experiments usually do not find something new, but only prove already existing observations. In many cases they simply fool the experimenters who are blinded with hope to prove the things they believe in.

The main problem is hidden behind the term V&V. It is needed to prove that your results are statistically significant. (Verification) It is critically important to prove that they are not meaningless. (Validation)

If you mistake unknown dependencies for randomness, you can prove that the hospitals are dangerous because most patients there are ill and frequently die. (The validity of many COVID-19 discoveries is on the same level. I would not explain details, because I will not waste my time in meaningless attempts to explain ancient science principles to modern scientists.)

There are two main problems with validation of all medical studies dependent on the methods you get the raw data.

You can extract some information from big public databases, but you cannot control important variables. A human is a complex self-organized system with unpredictable reactions to the simplest signals. Even the same amount of the same food can be healthy for one person and can cause a life-threatening allergic reaction by another. You could not find the difference unless you have data from very specific allergy-tests. However, if you ignore such reactions, you could measure not the effect of your medication but the effect of a some random component in the cover of your pill.

Most findings in COVID-19 studies are produced by ignorance of unknown dependencies. The main problem with the current pandemic is that the critically important data is simply not collected.

The bureaucrats are again saving money in wrong places. Some of them even claim that the doctors do to many "unnecessary" vitamin D3 measurements, however the level of this vitamin is the factor of survival by COVID-19. (The explanations about vitamin D3 will follow.)

This means, you could prove some theories by asking some doctors about their real patients, but it is impossible to prove these theories on base of the numbers that guide political decisions.

I think a random therapist with a good education and enough practical experience would guide the measures against COVID-19 much better than the current mix of politics, science, and other kinds of insanity. Even if such a doctor would make mistakes, they would be not catastrophic, and they will be corrected quickly because the doctors know that a method which helps the patient is better than a method which is right but not effective.

(Note, a random women will be more probably unable to make risky decisions in critical situations. Sometimes, you must choose, if you would like to be politically correct, or if you would be alive. Of course, it would be better to choose not a random therapist, but a man or a women with best mix of necessary personal qualities. The psychology of equality will be described in the book.)

The second problem for all medical measurements is the price of precision.

You can make tests, observations, inspections, and gather all important data from each test subject, but this is not for free. Let's say, a complete set of measurements costs $100 per mouse and the analogous set of measurements of a human costs $1'000. You have a budget that could not exceed $20'000, and you must prove your theory on the mouse model and on humans. How many patients could you recruit for your research?

You could get mice from one genetic line and claim that they are nearly the same, but all your patients are entirely different. (Experiments which include siblings are much more expensive.) This means, the reactions of your test subjects to the same medical intervention will surely be different, and you can only hope that these differences would be small enough to let your results remain somewhat statistically significant.

This means, all good medical studies have weak statistical validation. Most medical interventions that do not have massive side-effects are too subtle in comparison to the variation of the measured parameters among patients. They usually cannot be scientifically proven in the manner of the 21st century science. (Sanfte Medizin / 14 kB / 2021-05-15)

Another fundamental problem with medical studies is an impossibility to make clean experiments and to collect perfectly clean data.

A human body is too complex, and it is impossible to control all variables. The experimenters are also humans, and it is impossible to control their conscious or unconscious errors. And in most cases the professionals who collect the data can manipulate them in their favor.

It is impossible to sort out the intentional errors. Even the double-blind randomized controlled trials make this only difficult, but not impossible because a placebo usually does not produce side effects.

It is impossible to create clean representative control groups. First of all, you have no permission for doing something to humans, and you are not permitted to force them to agree with your actions. There are the basic rules you must follow to avoid jail. You need at least a confirmation form with a personal signature from each participant, and already this introduces hidden dependencies into the data. People who voluntarily participate in medical studies are selected from a random population on base of conscious actions of patients and their doctors. All selected people may have the same common reasons for their participation and these reasons may introduce hidden dependencies.

You are not permitted to select some random people in a European country or in the wildest parts of West Africa and simply give them a medication of any kind. You must prove to authorities that your experiments are ethically correct even before you give something to experimental mice. And you cannot let people die by simply placing them into a "control group" which will be not provided with some medication or vaccination that promises to save their lives.

There is a simple dilemma: Clean medical experiments are not ethical, and ethical medical experiments are not really clean.

If you compare something today with something in the past, this comparison is not clean. The medical protocols, the human behavior and even the food are changing over time. You cannot follow all these changes.

You cannot claim that the variables you ignore are fixed or not important (if you try to get real knowledge and are not simply playing with numbers).

It is also impossible to prove that the patients in two groups are the same unless you make all necessary measurements and all necessary professional diagnostics in both groups. Even if the precise data is stored somewhere, you are not permitted to use it without personal permission from test subjects.

There is only one valid design in medical studies: spend the money and fix all the variables that can affect the results, except the variables you are researching. Otherwise, the results would be as useless as the results in the nutrition and food studies, where basic concepts get periodically proven completely wrong.

There are strict rules for data collection by a phase 3 drug trials. They are now completely broken.

The raw manipulated data and the statistics forged by scientists have many other interesting features, but I better stop here. Such information is banned from social networks (I was banned on FB even for quite harmless remarks in German "Your Facebook Account Has Been Locked" / / 2021-04-02) and most doctors would not explain the problems they know about because such explanations could be considered as a propaganda against the vaccination, what could cause not only administrative actions, but also may be considered as a crime according to some recently issued laws.

It may be permitted to study some funny effects of some local political decisions, but I do not believe that any text in English language that proves or even mentions the existence of the problems I have described here could be recognized by a scientific article. (To transfer the anti-scientific information freely you need to learn Russian.)

There was an ancient science which was called "sovietology", and it had allowed the analysts to make right conclusion on base of intentionally manipulated data. These skills are lost now. The CIA is unable not only to predict the North Korea's nuclear program, but it also misses the basic economic estimations of this country. (I do not mention the Afghanistan 2021 disaster, we all know, this is beyond salvation.)

The manipulations in the Chinese statistics were not detected at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, this inability had caused disastrous decisions and catastrophic strategies, which have affected the ways the data is collected and processed in other countries. The wrong numbers have produced the insane political strategies, these strategies have generated new wrong numbers, these generated wrong numbers have guided the following political strategies, and this cycle cannot be stopped. We are rolling into the health care socialism.

The Hunt on Greedy Doctors

The modern European healthcare system will not be described in the book because it is pretty banal from the point of view of the social engineering. However, it is important to know some basic principles to understand the causes of the COVID-19 crisis and to estimate the future trends. (I'll try to mention the most important features. You can return to this part after you read the book when and if it will be available.) The human life is a dangerous process. It is impossible to survive the life (at least in the same human body, I will not discuss here other possibilities). A doctor tries to prolong patient's remaining time until the unavoidable death and to improve its quality. (The concepts of time and time quality will be explained in the book.)

These tasks are usually the goals of the private health care. The problem with personal payments is the inequality between people who have health and money and the people who are lacking some of them. The modern health care system in European countries is based on solidarity. This means, the goal of it is different from the goals of the private healthcare business.

An insurance company is not a health maintenance organization. It pays the doctors not for the health, but for reports. This is a typical socialistic enterprise where the consumer quality is irrelevant for all people who do and manage the job. (These are also conclusions from social engineering models, which are not explained here.)

Consequently, the doctors are motivated to produce illnesses and make them chronic. This allows them to sell medication and to report additional workload to the insurance companies.

Fortunately, the insurance companies can waste any amount of money on this reports' production processes because they do not have any responsibilities and always can blame the evil doctors for their greed.

Note, if a patient remains healthy it is impossible to prove that a medical treatment was necessary to prevent an illness. There is no evidence except professional opinions, and they may differ. The optimal economic strategy based on a typical medical tariff is to postpone preventive actions and to wait for a serious illness that would permit more expensive actions and medications.

As a rule, the "expensive" private medicine is cheaper in most cases and is sometimes a factor of survival.

A right process design aligns the personal goals of people who participate in this process with the main goal of the whole process. Such optimization is usually very difficult for health care because of unavoidable conflicts of interests.

For instance, a qualified decision about a therapy strategy must consider opinions of two professionals from different fields. The first is an internist who gets money for curing a gallbladder and who awaits many future sessions with the same patient. The second is a surgeon who gets money for cutting the same gallbladder off and who makes this operation one time.

Even worse, two doctors in the same field could objectively need quite different budgets for tests because one of them has less experience and needs more data to make the same right decisions.

However, the same economic description could mean that one of them is more experienced and objectively needs additional data to make more precise decisions and to recognize exotic cases.

The amount of details and the need for deep knowledge in many areas makes the health care business very difficult to manage even for best experts with excellent analytical skills. The real-life managers are usually very far from excellence and professionalism, they have no other choose than to build their strategies based on ignorance and oversimplifications. The simplest strategy is to make doctors cheap.

If you dream about the cheap doctors who are not interested in the profits and in the results, your dream is implemented in North Korea. As far as I know -- and nobody can claim that he knows something for sure about North Korea -- you will be treated for the state money as long as you are healthy enough to be useful for the state. After you get not useful, the state medical system will let you die in peace.

This system may be criticized, but it is rational. It is optimized for effectiveness. It makes most citizens healthier and ignores complicated illnesses. This does not mean, that the doctors dispose of such patients, they simply do not have enough resources to cure them.

Of course, these rules are not applicable to the Dear Leader and to the estimated workers of the Party also to some very important persons. Their usefulness is so high, that they get the best treatment available in the country. And the best doctors in North Korea are pretty good.

I doubt, you would be considered important, in a such health care system.

If you expect doctors to be good and their resources to be enough for complicated cases, you must pay the price. Except for some criminal cases, the private healthcare makes the health better and the expenditures smaller. It is based on expensive professional services, extensive tests, carefully selected interventions and limited medications.

The fools who control the health care business based on solidarity produce conflicts of personal goals and turn the behavior they "try" to prevent into the optimal economic strategy. The tariff systems produced by bureaucrats are based on limited professional services, carefully selected tests, extensive interventions and expensive medications.

If a hospital receives the biggest profits from terminally ill patients -- and this is usually the consequence from the rules -- an optimal strategy would be to monitor an illness and not to cure it. It is optimal to perform expensive meaningless manipulations that cannot cure and cannot harm the patient. Any spending would be proven because this strategy would produce the best bureaucratic proof: a surely dead patient.

Doctors are usually only humans. This means, they neglect their economic interests to hold their moral values. I know some German doctors who were forced to pay the insurance companies their own money because they did not let the patients get ill and "caused not allowed expenditures".

Note, the common people do not understand the healthcare system because they are not permitted to know the most important information. The health care bureaucrats and the managers of insurance companies have nearly unlimited financial resources. This means, they may spend enough many for public relations and advertising. They usually advertise their hunt on greedy doctors and purchase science to prove their economic measures.

If you believe that the uncontrolled people are dumb enough to handle against their interests, I will not disturb your arrogance. You are not alone. This is the ground, why all attempts to mix democracy with socialism have inevitably failed.

However, I would not explain socialism. You could not comprehend my explanations, unless you have some relevant personal experience of living in a socialistic country.

Do not mistake socialism for a capitalism with benefits. If you believe that your socialistic duty would be to work several hours for free, you err. Your duty would be to eat what is provided by the State, to sleep in a bed what is provided by the State, to wear the clothes what are provided by the State, because all this junk, which is produced by the people who work for free, needs to be somehow consumed.

I think, the U.S. citizens need at least 10 more years to understand the basics.

The book will contain social engineering models of socialistic systems. I would mention now only a simplified explanation about an exchange and a distribution.

You can allow the people who control an exchange to be greedy without destroying the system, but you must be sure that the people who control a distribution of any resources among other people do not use their position for personal benefits. (If they misuse their power, you simply have created a perverted version of an exchange.)

Note, I do not mean a simple corruption. Most benefits in a distribution do not have any monetary value because the money itself has in socialism not the same meaning what it has in an exchange. It is necessary to properly study Marx to understand this. (Most interpretations of Marx's works are incorrect.)

There is a very long list of ideas that could solve the problem of imperfect people who are in control of a distribution. All these ideas do not work. Only two forces can protect a distribution system against massive misuse: You can choose between faith and fear, or you can use both of them.

The distribution works perfectly in a monastery or in a religious terrorist's group because these people have faith in their beliefs.

The distribution works quite good under massive terror. However, there is a need for an organization which distributes terror among people who distribute resources among normal citizens.

An interesting example is North Korea. The Western point of view is wrong. It is now not a socialistic country, but a specific kind of national-oriented monarchy with socialistic elements. These elements are pretty big and consequently the citizens are forced to have faith in their dear Leader and to experience fear of the country's security services. It is not clear, which of the forces is prevalent.

It is possible that a small instability in the country would cause a rebellion. It is possible that any kind of severe problems in the country would only force people to offer their lives to protect the Kim's rule.

The citizens follow rituals and show their love to the dear Party and to the Dear Leader. Sometimes citizens protest against an economic policy, but I have not heard that they have demanded more freedom. It is completely unknown, what they really think about Kim and about the political system.

I have discussed this problem with people who study the country. This means they not only read some documents, but they have also visited North Korea and they had many personal contacts with (former) citizens and officials. Nobody knows how stable the Kim's system is. This means, nobody in the world knows this for sure, including the North Korea's top officials.

If you have sharp observation skills, you could detect the signs of faith and fear in the current situation around you, because the preventive actions against COVID-19 have introduced a lot of socialistic elements.

You may remember Orwell's "1984". The information propagation follows today the main socialistic rule: If you know some information, you ought to believe in it. If you do not know some information, you have no permission to know it.

For instance, NASA had recently lowered the 2016 global average temperature to advertise the year 2020 as the "hottest year on record by narrow margin". If you are lucky, you could search and find some scientifically sounding explanations, why it is correct to change in 2021 the measurements data from the year 2016. I doubt, you could find a single explanation, why this is a fraud.

Note, this is only an unimportant example. If you have noticed an urge to deny or to confirm it, please ignore your reaction. This was simply the latest funny thing I have discussed with the people who know. I could use any other example to explain the same problem.

Of course, I could use the funniest story and replace NASA with Trump, but if people see this name, nobody would discuss the abstract problem of the consequences of a possibility to cut off even a President of the United States (who was some time ago considered as the most powerful person on this planet). An unimportant name will cause a strong emotional reaction which would destroy the main theme, and which would force all participants to report their personal opinions about Trump.

This is not science, this is psychology.

The War of Face Masks

The politics is not a memoryless Markov chain of independent events. People adjust their reactions on new political initiatives dependent on their previous experience (if they do not forget the history). The most prominent example today would be the infinite argument about face masks.

We know that a face mask can reduce the mean virus transfer. (Anything that somehow filters the air flow will reduce it.)

We know that this protection is not absolute because we do not stop the air flow completely.

We also know that the probability to be infected with COVID-19 by a contact with a virus carrier is dependent on time, because humans periodically breathe in a new portion of air.

It is possible to make an expensive controlled experiment, which, say, states that in an open-air environment by contact of two persons of the age group X who are placed on the distance Y for Z minutes the specific method to carry specific masks reduces the probability to be infected by 20%.

You issue an order to carry face masks. How would it affect the virus transfer in a real-world mixed population?

The correct answer is: We do not know.

People can carry masks on their chins, and this would reduce the protection effect to zero. People can purchase not the tested masks, but the masks with better filtration, and the effect will be much greater than the experimental results. People can decide that their masks 100% protect them, and consequently these people would reduce the mean contact distance, what would increase the virus transfer by 30%.

An order to carry masks may produce a positive or a negative cumulative effect, or may not produce any significant effect at all.

It would be reasonable at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to tell people to take some cloth and to cover their mouths and noses. This could not stop the virus, but this could slow down the first wave.

The world's best export nation (before the COVID-19 lockdowns) could even mobilize resources to make somehow good enough masks from available materials. However, the German politicians could not say: "Hey, people! The evil virus about which we have told you several decades is finally here. But -- guess what? -- we are not prepared. We even do not have for you most basic protection. Piss off and die."

Most European politicians were in the same situation. They had searched for a solution and the modern science had offered its help.

You can find today scientific proofs for almost everything. If this brothel does contain ready proofs for the theory you need, you can order them (if you have enough money and enough administrative connections).

This process is called the Sciencefication. It would be described in the book.

The politicians had told the people that the face masks are evil, and they had mentioned many scientific articles with undeniable scientific proofs. I can remember how Chancellor Angela Merkel had explained to Germans that it is enough to wash hands and to sneeze into the own elbow bend to build a perfect protection against COVID-19. (I consider this as a massive diversion.)

Some people had ignored these insane reasons, some people had gotten curious, some people were imprinted with the early phase science that had denied face masks.

The pandemic did not stop, and the spread of the virus SARS-CoV-2 got out of control. The politicians had searched for a "sure solution", and they were pleased with the Chinese dictatorship.

People who know the basics, would never believe any Chinese numbers and any Chinese reports. Other Asian countries such as South Korea had better strategies, but the politicians always understand only the simplest ways and do not give a dumb about unintended consequences.

The mandatory face masks were present among other wonderful Chinese methods.

The same politicians had issued orders, but they were also in need to explain that their actions are for people's good. They had searched for a solution and the modern science had offered its help.

The politicians had told the people that the face masks are an ultimate solution and they had mentioned many articles with undeniable scientific proofs.

Some people had ignored these insane reasons, some people had gotten curious, some people had forgotten the former science and were imprinted with the new science, some people were caught in the early phase science that had denied face masks.

The last two groups are destined to participate in endless scientific arguments. Logical reasons cannot affect the beliefs that are hidden on the unconscious levels of mind.

There was a small fundamental problem in this Re-Branding, because the new science had proven, that you must carry a face mask to save other people, and the early phase science had proven, that you ruin your health when you carry a face mask. Fortunately, the most people had immediately forgotten the Justification of the first Brand. Such full replacement of Goals is usual in the modern world.

By the way, you must decide what are you fighting: the Global Warming or the Climate Change. Unfortunately, they are incompatible: There are no hurricanes in a greenhouse. However, there is a solution in Orwell's "1984".

The Discovery of an Obvious Wonder

The COVID-19 pandemic has many interesting features that could be placed into future textbooks. This text is long enough, and I will finish it with a comparison of the politicians' strategies with doctors' strategies.

It is impossible to measure an amount of viruses that were inhaled and to predict their distribution inside. This means, it is impossible to measure face masks in real circumstances. This is the best feature for politicians because you can be always right, and it is impossible to prove that you are somewhat wrong. The same reasons are true for lockdowns, vaccinations, prohibitions, limitations and other political actions. None of them can be really measured.

Doctors do not seek for ultimate solutions; they work as security engineers. I mean not the people who sell security, who come in a company and advertise ultimate tools, unbeatable certificates and unbreakable algorithms. I mean the true security engineers, the professionals who analyze the defense qualities of the whole system including people with their ignorance, evil intentions and pure dumbness. Such a professional would not blindly offer a solution, he would find the weakest part of the defense and fix it. Then he would fix the next weakest part.

It is not important how thick are the walls of your castle, if a small door behind the stable remains open.

The same logic is applicable to a human's health. Masks, distances and other measures are good, but they cannot prevent an infection completely. It is critical, that the immune system responds properly when it comes in contact with COVID-19.

It is known for ages that such substances as vitamin D3, selenium, zinc, etc. are the bricks for the human immune system. (Details are not important, the biochemical cycles are too complex to explain them here.) An immune system cannot respond properly to a new threat if it does not have enough supply. Nothing more and nothing less. Optimal levels of these substances in blood are known. A measurement of vitamin D3 in blood is a routine such as a measurement of the blood pressure, or of the glucose in urine.

Good doctors had known about vitamin D3 from the beginning of the current pandemic. The number of tests had increased because it is important to detect patients with dangerously low levels and to prescribe them doses that are much more than the usual recommendations. Sometimes the levels must be increased with injections. These levels will fall relatively slow. This means, it is very simple to raise the level of this vitamin and to hold it near the optimal value. (Different doctors may have different opinions about it, but usually this is near the maximal border of the norm.)

Already the first studies have shown that the low levels of vitamin D3 mean statistically significant more deaths, but the information about a "wonderful vitamin" was released in the Swiss mass media only in Fall 2020. I think, most people here take this vitamin as a precaution.

Of course, this is only a part in a complex defense system of the human immunity. Many people have understood the importance of their natural health and the number of patients who actively fight their overweight or their high blood pressure is steadily growing. I have used the vitamin D3 for my example, because it is considered today to be the most important factor for surviving COVID-19.

This knowledge was obvious from the beginning because the biochemical processes of the immune system were studied by the ancient scientists. The measurements are available because they were created by the ancient engineers. It would be possible to let the doctors speak freely through the mass media, they could explain such basic principles to all people before the first COVID-19 wave, this information could save many lives, and this notification would cost a little fraction of any of other political measures. However, this solution was too cheap, too simple and too unscientific to benefit the modern European politicians.

A lot of people still do not know that the vitamin D3 is important and that they have an insufficient level of it. If you also do not know about the role of this vitamin, your life is not important for the politicians who block the information that is not "confirmed by science".

Comments

[vit_r]

Текста получилось столько, что можно книжку-малышку сделать (чтобы незаметно подбрасывать кому следует). Тем более, насчёт обложки есть идея.

Но влом редактировать и дописывать очевидные объяснения.

Хороший текст

[idan11]

Книжку пишем?


ЗЫ. Кмк, буква пропущена "Note, you mАy do not like the Vaccine Faith"

[vit_r]

Книжку пишем, но слишком много думаем. Если не думать, можно было пять книжек написать.

Ещё раз отредактирую, когда время будет. Я ещё про зомби забыл вставить. С буквой a в некоторых словах ошибка в нескольких местах была. Клавиша неудобно расположена.

[proben]

to make a bad choose (choice).

(Note, I mean a white human male scientist, you can be short in communication with this species. You must switch to a more complicated protocol by a communication with scientists of other genders, colors and biological kinds.) - looks redundant to me. "Shut up" is not necessarily exact words one would use but the message to deliver.

The numbers in a socialistic country are for show I'd rephrase that "numbers are for show". Doesn't sound good to me. cannot reflect any reality. Potentially they can. In some cases. I'd use "would not" instead.

Chinese simply could not imagine that there could be some idiots who would really believe in the numbers Chinese simply could not imagine that some idiots would really believe in the numbers The current pandemic has the same problems (problem).

Позже дочитаю. Пока нужно водой в подвале заняться :)

[vit_r]

Сейчас меня интересуют только места, где что-то непонятно или криво. Это могут быть просто артефакты редактирования, а могут быть попытки неудачно вложить подтекст. На русском первый черновик выглядит не лучше.

Наверно, стоит добавить в объявление.

С фильтрацией идиотов ещё подумаю. Пусть уж лучше отвалятся сразу, чем будут придираться к мелочам.

[straktor]

he does not digs deep -> dig

the publication rice -> race

such person exist -> exists

The editorial office that receive -> offices

does not live the hospital's walls. -> no such idiom; does not go out of

There is no such ting -> thing

producers of vaccines have noticed doctors -> notified

> the same 1% rise of numbers can cause a lockdown

I doubt it very much. Even C^n and C^(1.01*n) and (1.01*C)^n are quite close.

[vit_r]

Спасибо. Про локдауны подумаю. Наверно стоит добавить про ёмкость реанимаций.

[gluckq]

ну тогда уже и я добавлю:
publication rice [встречается несколько раз] => race
mouses => mice [plural of mouse]
1964 => 1984

[vit_r]

Гонка давно исправлена и с тех пор ещё кое-что по смыслу дописано. 1984 просто забыл исправить. А с мышами, да. Переклинило. В технических текстах попадается mouses.

[gluckq]

может для компьютерных мышей mouses и есть правильная форма? там чёрт ногу сломит, если чё.

[gluckq]

насчёт нехватки витамина д3 -- там написано укольчики колоть. а как насчёт Вигантола (капель)? или это не то?

[vit_r]

Обычно справляется организм. Есть люди с низким уровнем, которым дают большие концентрации. Есть плохой обмен витамина или уровень слишком низкий, там иногда приходится колоть. Но для масс просто есть обычные рекомендации, которые поднимают иммунитет по популяции.

В принципе, в этом должен домашний врач разбираться. Если поискать, у специалистов просто есть набор анализов для проверки иммунитета. Иногда железо низкое, иногда селен. Иногда генетические проблемы с обменом веществ. Если копать, там чёрт ногу сломит.

[gluckq]

чёрт со сломанной ногой витает в воздухе. ещё пару таких совпадений, и начнёшь верить в мистику...

[sidorovmax]

Спасибо.
С удовольствием прочитал.
Крошечное предложение: удаление и лечение поджелудочной заменить на удаление и лечение желчного пузыря.

[vit_r]

OK! Обойдёмся без жестокостей.

[(Anonymous)]

could not pass in the book -> does not yet fit into a book

were intentionally not explained and they demand the understanding of ideas you probably do not know, if you have not ->
are intentionally left unexplained as they require an understanding of ideas you are probably unfamiliar with unless you have

carry face masks -> use face masks

ancient scientists/engineers -> 20th century scientists/engineers ?
A lot of lives would be saved, if this information would reach the people from the beginning -> A lot of lives would have been saved, if this information reached people early on
the vitamin D3 -> vitamin D3
I have also heard about cases when a patient was too active by such self-protection. -> I have also heard about cases in which self-medication with vitamin D3 was taken too far.

not important for people who hold the information. -> not important for the people who hold the information.

Of course, this is only one protective factor of many others. The number of patients who try to fight their overweight or their high blood pressure is also significantly increased. I have used the vitamin D3 for my example while it is considered today as the most important factor of survival by COVOD-19. -> This is just one protective factor among many. The growing number of people is now finally trying to address their excess weight and/or high blood pressure. I have focused on vitamin D3 because today it is considered to be the most important factor for surviving COVID-19.

[vit_r]

Спасибо.

Нарушения грамматики не всегда просто ошибки, иногда они несут специфический смысл. Потому "carry face masks", а не "use face masks". Маска на подбородке не может считаться не используемой, ни надетой, только носимой. Этот баланс и на русском сложно удержать.

Про ancient scientists и прочее добавил комментарии.

Неудачную стилистику исправил, чтобы раскрыть смысл. Не то, чтобы результат совсем нравился, но получилось лучше.

[ak_47]

Пока прочитал только Introduction. Уже заинтригован. На выходных почитаю.

Мне кажется что использование "disturb" не совсем уместно. Или это калька с немецкого? Я бы сказал "disrupt the clean fall of Germany", "interfere with/disrupt the elections". Disturb это скорее когда что-то очень неприятное, например, disturbing images, disturbing news, etc.

[vit_r]

Смысл именно такой. ребёнок пытается схватиться за горячую сковородку, а ты подходишь и говоришь, что этого делать не стоит, потому что будет бо-бо. А он тебе отвечает: "Don't disturb me!"

Это сарказм и в тексте такого много. Так что комментировать по частям особого смысла не имеет. Не видно развитие сюжета.

(frozen comment)

[(Anonymous)]

1) Горшочек, не вари!
2) Дед забыл принять таблетки?
3) Подлец, мразь, тварь, мерзавец, сволочь и т.д.

(frozen comment)

[vit_r]

> whois 149.62.27.82

[...]

route: 149.62.0.0/19
descr: JSC Vimpelcom
descr: Nizhny Novgorod, Russia

Это просто для тех, кто считает, что тандем-байкская любовь уникальна и её слог характерен.