Case 13-7 (itSotWC)
Mar. 13th, 2020 10:13 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
vit_rThe pandemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 may destroy the service economy.
Big changes start small. They are visible only to the people who understand what really happens. The cracks in our familiar world are quite small, but they are here.
Each technological revolution must break three main barriers: Technology, Solutions, Habits.
Let's consider the mobility revolution that was created by the internal combustion engine. At the beginning of the 20th century the technology was ready but the first cars were built like old carriages without a horse. A chain of engineering solutions have turned this nonsense into a vehicle we know today.
The barrier of humans' habits was broken with time. First cars were playthings for rich geeks. A lot of changes in the mindset of broad masses from state laws till ethical norms were needed before the cars turned into a desire and after that into a custom.
The mobility revolution has produced dramatic economic changes. The car industry has emerged. A network of gas stations was created. A network of roads designed for cars and speed was build through all countries.
The old industry based on one horse power was destroyed. The electric cars had lost the competition and were also abandoned. Our world had started to move more swiftly.
We stand on the eve of another technological revolution. This time the computer algorithms will replace the human brainpower.
If you remove people from some production chains, the quality and performance will degrade not dramatically. If you remove people from other production chains, they will turn better and cheaper.
Do not believe politicians, robots will not take boring manual labor from poor people. Humans are better at this and, it seems, this advantage will remain for next hundred years.
Do not believe university professors, robots will not be able to take the management role. It is impossible to foresee all variations of the future even in simple cases (when we speak not about academic theories but about the real life). People are needed to react on abnormal situations and to make intuitive decisions.
Robots will replace the middlemen, the diligent hardworking people, who carry to customers goods, finances, knowledge and decisions.
The first World Wide Web wave had created a lot of internet shops. Now big marketplaces directly connect clients with manufacturers. Internet shops are out.
There are a lot of processes where a human emerges between goods or services and people who demand them. The human's function is to offer a communication in person.
Note, these are not waiters who carry client's order to the kitchen or bank clerks who transfer client's verbal desires into a bank computer system but also well paid coaches or financial consultants, who transfer information.
We have now technologies to replace all of them. This is the future world of Max Outerhouse where a lot of people are still present but already not needed.
These technologies are already here. They are tested and they really work. This means, changes are unavoidable. It is no question if they happen, the only question is when they will completely change our life.
The today's solutions are ugly as a horse-powered carriage with an internal combustion engine. They are confusing and illogical. However, this is not a principal problem but a task for good engineers. This task is doable.
The main obstacle stopping the new technological revolution are the human habits that demand other humans for personal communication.
The pandemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 breaks this barrier.
A lot of countries are placed under total quarantine. People who had their whole life believed in personal communication and handshakes ask how to establish video conferences and what software is needed to equip a powerful home office.
If the pandemic dies out before this summer, a lot of people will lose their fear of computer technologies. If the pandemic returns at autumn, the old human-demanding habits will be broken completely.
The transformation that demands several decades will be complete in several years.
Be prepared.
March 2020, Friday the 13th
Big changes start small. They are visible only to the people who understand what really happens. The cracks in our familiar world are quite small, but they are here.
Each technological revolution must break three main barriers: Technology, Solutions, Habits.
Let's consider the mobility revolution that was created by the internal combustion engine. At the beginning of the 20th century the technology was ready but the first cars were built like old carriages without a horse. A chain of engineering solutions have turned this nonsense into a vehicle we know today.
The barrier of humans' habits was broken with time. First cars were playthings for rich geeks. A lot of changes in the mindset of broad masses from state laws till ethical norms were needed before the cars turned into a desire and after that into a custom.
The mobility revolution has produced dramatic economic changes. The car industry has emerged. A network of gas stations was created. A network of roads designed for cars and speed was build through all countries.
The old industry based on one horse power was destroyed. The electric cars had lost the competition and were also abandoned. Our world had started to move more swiftly.
We stand on the eve of another technological revolution. This time the computer algorithms will replace the human brainpower.
If you remove people from some production chains, the quality and performance will degrade not dramatically. If you remove people from other production chains, they will turn better and cheaper.
Do not believe politicians, robots will not take boring manual labor from poor people. Humans are better at this and, it seems, this advantage will remain for next hundred years.
Do not believe university professors, robots will not be able to take the management role. It is impossible to foresee all variations of the future even in simple cases (when we speak not about academic theories but about the real life). People are needed to react on abnormal situations and to make intuitive decisions.
Robots will replace the middlemen, the diligent hardworking people, who carry to customers goods, finances, knowledge and decisions.
The first World Wide Web wave had created a lot of internet shops. Now big marketplaces directly connect clients with manufacturers. Internet shops are out.
There are a lot of processes where a human emerges between goods or services and people who demand them. The human's function is to offer a communication in person.
Note, these are not waiters who carry client's order to the kitchen or bank clerks who transfer client's verbal desires into a bank computer system but also well paid coaches or financial consultants, who transfer information.
We have now technologies to replace all of them. This is the future world of Max Outerhouse where a lot of people are still present but already not needed.
These technologies are already here. They are tested and they really work. This means, changes are unavoidable. It is no question if they happen, the only question is when they will completely change our life.
The today's solutions are ugly as a horse-powered carriage with an internal combustion engine. They are confusing and illogical. However, this is not a principal problem but a task for good engineers. This task is doable.
The main obstacle stopping the new technological revolution are the human habits that demand other humans for personal communication.
The pandemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 breaks this barrier.
A lot of countries are placed under total quarantine. People who had their whole life believed in personal communication and handshakes ask how to establish video conferences and what software is needed to equip a powerful home office.
If the pandemic dies out before this summer, a lot of people will lose their fear of computer technologies. If the pandemic returns at autumn, the old human-demanding habits will be broken completely.
The transformation that demands several decades will be complete in several years.
Be prepared.
March 2020, Friday the 13th
no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 12:50 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 02:31 pm (UTC)I do not know where to settle high paid, deeply educated and mighty arrogant computer scientists and certified managers.
no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 03:03 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 12:50 pm (UTC)Не был упомянут Форд с его революционным применением конвейера, старая промышленность описана, как основанная на одной лошадиной силе, хотя к тому времени она была основана в большей степени на паровых машинах и т.п. Понятно почему, оно не вписывается в вашу сову.
Про роботов вообще хрень, похоже вы вообще даже поверхностно не знаете, что происходит в данной сфере.
Короче хреново гоните, у Левенчука выходит лучше.
Учитывая, что ваши предсказания обычно не сбываются, все могут расслабиться.
no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 01:50 pm (UTC)Не заметить слова mobility, начать нести отсебятину, приплести Форда, а потом усиленно доказывать неправоту человечков в собственной голове.
Кстати, робот в английском означает тоже немного не то, что в русском.
Столько ляпов, что даже и объяснять не интересно.
Если я пишу что-то на английском, это не значит, что я хочу выпендриться. Не надо пытаться устраивать под этим жаркий спор. Если что-то выглядит странно, стоит исходить из того, что проблемы не на моей стороне.
Комментарий скрыт, ветка заморожена.
no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 03:30 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 03:33 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 03:39 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 03:48 pm (UTC)На этом и посыпалась индустрия requirements engineering.
Впрочем, мы уже ушли от темы в какие-то дебри.
robots will not take boring manual labor from poor people
Date: 2020-03-14 08:23 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-03-15 07:59 am (UTC)В АТС алгоритмическую часть перевели на сторону клиента, превратив "Девушка! Дайте Смольный!" в набор номера.
no subject
Date: 2020-03-15 11:31 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-03-16 06:54 am (UTC)